Despite the fact that Muslims tend to exhibit behavior that clearly
distinguishes them from both the European host populations and other
immigrant groups, there are no official figures to indicate how many
Muslims live in Sweden and Denmark. Danes and Swedes have had to rely on
wildly diverging estimates because the authorities refuse to publish
statistics on religion or culture.
In Denmark estimates ranging from 200,000 to 700,000 have been circulated.
Dispatch is now able to reveal the true figures based on our own
research: 574,000 Muslims in Sweden and 256,000 in Denmark. The
statistical uncertainty is roughly +/- 20,000 in Sweden and +/- 10,000
in Denmark.
This means that Muslims make up 6.05% of Sweden’s population and 4.59% of Denmark’s.
In 1998 there were 284,000 Muslims in Sweden and they made up 3.21%
of the total population. In other words, the number of Muslims has
roughly doubled over the period 1998-2011.
During the same period, Muslim immigration and natural increase among
Swedish Muslims have accounted for slightly over 41% of Sweden’s total
population growth.
The Muslim share of Denmark’s total population growth 1998-2012 is markedly lower and accounts for a bit over 33%
In 1998 Denmark’s Muslim population was 153,000 and made up 2.88% of the total population.
As mentioned, neither Statistics Denmark nor its Swedish equivalent,
Statistiska Centralbyrån,
keep records of how many Muslims live in the two countries. They do,
however, register how many people bear particular first names.
By January 1, 2012, e.g., 50,697 Danish men and boys were named Jens
and 43,258 were called Henrik. Ali was a name shared by 3,776 and
Mohammad by 3,717. It should be kept in mind that the bearers of
variations on the Mohammad name – such as Muhamad, Ahmed and Mahmoud –
are registered separately.
Sweden’s name statistic follows roughly the same principle when it
comes to name registration as Statistics Danmark. There is, however, a
difference in that Sweden does not register names of persons that intend
to stay less than 12 months in the country nor the names of asylum
seekers while their application is being processed. For this reason the
number of Muslims in Sweden is undoubtedly higher than indicated by
Dispatch International’s count.
The two most popular Swedish names registered by December 31, 2011
were Lars (98,435 persons) and Anders (81,562). The most common Muslim
names were Ali (9,062) and Mohamed (5,056).
As practically all Muslims have Muslim first names, it is a simple
albeit lengthy operation to count the number of Muslim males and, with
the assumption that there is an equal number of Muslim females, one may
calculate the total Muslim population.
This is the method by which Dispatch has reached its figures.
When there has been doubt whether a name is Muslim, we have not taken
it into account. In addition, a number of Swedes and Danes have
converted to Islam. In many cases converts have exchanged their Nordic
names for Muslim ones, but not always.
These factors explain why Dispatch operates with a statistical
uncertainty. As a result we may have underestimated the number of
Muslims that can be identified through a name count, but probably not
by more than 20,000 in Sweden and 10,000 in Denmark.
It goes without saying that Dispatch’s survey does not include people that are here illegally.
In the case of Sweden, we have only done name counts for 1998 and
2011. For Denmark, Lars Hedegaard has calculated the figures relating to
1998, 2004, 2008 and 2012. The Danish figures are as of January 1
whereas the Swedish ones relate to December 31, 1998 and 2011.
Our calculations reveal an interesting development. Between 1998 and
2004, Denmark’s Muslim population grew by an average of 4.26% a year.
During the period 2004-2008, the average yearly growth decreased
slightly to 3.52%.
After 2008 this trend has been reversed and the yearly growth is now higher than at any time since 1998, namely 4.29%
This reversal has taken place while Denmark’s former center-right
government was in power with the parliamentary support of the
immigration-critical Danish People’s Party. This government was heavily
criticized for being ”xenophobic” and ”Islamophobic” due to its
supposedly restrictive immigration policies. But the actual figures show
that the center-right governments that were in power from 2001 till
2011 hardly made a dent in the Muslim growth rate.
Over the entire period 1998-2012, the average yearly increase in
Denmark’s Muslim population was 4.27% whereas Sweden, with its much more
welcoming immigration policy, experienced an average growth rate of
7.85%
There are several indications that the Muslim growth rate is set to
rise in both Denmark and Sweden. As one of its first actions the Social
Democratic-led government that came to power in 2011 reversed some of
the restrictions on immigration imposed by the former cabinet.
As for Sweden, the immigration authorities (
Migrationsverket) estimate an influx of 174,500 new immigrants over the coming two years.
Most of these arrivals will probably be Muslims, as the largest
groups of immigrants are likely to come from Somalia and Afghanistan.
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Monir Mohammed of PICC said plans for a place of worship in Russell Hill Place are still on the agenda and welcomed any plans for a second Islamic centre in Purley